Stay-at-Home Works to Fight Against COVID-19: International Evidence from Google Mobility Data
One sentence summary: Stay-at-home works to fight against COVID-19.
The corresponding academic paper by Hakan Yilmazkuday has been accepted for publication at Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment.
The working paper version is available here.
Abstract
Daily Google mobility data covering 130 countries over the period between February 15th, 2020 and May 2nd, 2020 suggest that less mobility is associated with lower COVID-19 cases and deaths. This observation is formally tested by using a difference-in-difference design, where country-fixed effects, time-fixed effects as well as the country-specific timing of the 100th COVID-19 case are controlled for. The results suggest that 1% of a weekly increase in being at residential places leads into about 70 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 7 less weekly COVID-19 deaths, whereas 1% of a weekly decrease in visits to transit stations leads into about 33 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 4 less weekly COVID-19 deaths, on average across countries. Similarly, 1% of a weekly reduction in visits to retail & recreation results in about 25 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 3 less weekly COVID-19 deaths, or 1% of a weekly reduction in visits to workplaces results in about 18 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 2 less weekly COVID-19 deaths.
Non-technical Summary
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been declared as a pandemic on March 11th, 2020 by the World Health Organization. Due to the high number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, several countries reacted to this pandemic by issuing stay-at-home orders, because COVID-19 spreads mainly through person-to-person contact. Nevertheless, as shown in the figure below, countries have alternative changes in their mobility over time based on Google mobility data.
In particular, across countries, as of May 2nd, 2020, the reduction in visits to retail & recreation ranges between 21% and 95%, that of grocery & pharmacy ranges between 8% and 98%, that of parks ranges between 12% and 95%, that of transit stations ranges between 27% and 100%, and that of workplaces ranges between 14% and 92%, whereas the increase in being at residential places ranges between 8% and 55%, all with respect to the baseline determined by Google.
This paper investigates the relationship between country-specific changes in mobility and the corresponding COVID-19 cases/deaths. This is achieved by using daily data on COVID-19 cases and deaths as well as Google mobility data covering 130 countries around the world for the period between February 15th, 2020 and May 2nd, 2020. Descriptive statistics suggest that both COVID-19 cases and deaths are lower in countries with less mobility.
The formal investigation is achieved by using a difference-in-difference design, where weekly changes in COVID-19 cases or deaths are regressed on weekly changes in mobility. After controlling for county-fixed effects, time-fixed effects, and country-specific timing of the 100th COVID-19 case, the results suggest that 1% of a weekly increase in being at residential places leads into about 70 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 7 less weekly COVID-19 deaths, whereas 1% of a weekly decrease in visits to transit stations leads into about 33 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 4 less weekly COVID-19 deaths, on average across countries.
Similarly, 1% of a weekly reduction in visits to retail & recreation results in about 25 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 3 less weekly COVID-19 deaths, or 1% of a weekly reduction in visits to workplaces results in about 18 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 2 less weekly COVID-19 deaths. Finally, 1% of a weekly reduction in visits to grocery & pharmacy or parks results in about 1 less weekly COVID-19 death, although the effects on COVID-19 cases are statistically insignificant.
The corresponding academic paper by Hakan Yilmazkuday has been accepted for publication at Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment. The working paper version is available here.
Abstract
Daily Google mobility data covering 130 countries over the period between February 15th, 2020 and May 2nd, 2020 suggest that less mobility is associated with lower COVID-19 cases and deaths. This observation is formally tested by using a difference-in-difference design, where country-fixed effects, time-fixed effects as well as the country-specific timing of the 100th COVID-19 case are controlled for. The results suggest that 1% of a weekly increase in being at residential places leads into about 70 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 7 less weekly COVID-19 deaths, whereas 1% of a weekly decrease in visits to transit stations leads into about 33 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 4 less weekly COVID-19 deaths, on average across countries. Similarly, 1% of a weekly reduction in visits to retail & recreation results in about 25 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 3 less weekly COVID-19 deaths, or 1% of a weekly reduction in visits to workplaces results in about 18 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 2 less weekly COVID-19 deaths.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been declared as a pandemic on March 11th, 2020 by the World Health Organization. Due to the high number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, several countries reacted to this pandemic by issuing stay-at-home orders, because COVID-19 spreads mainly through person-to-person contact. Nevertheless, as shown in the figure below, countries have alternative changes in their mobility over time based on Google mobility data.
In particular, across countries, as of May 2nd, 2020, the reduction in visits to retail & recreation ranges between 21% and 95%, that of grocery & pharmacy ranges between 8% and 98%, that of parks ranges between 12% and 95%, that of transit stations ranges between 27% and 100%, and that of workplaces ranges between 14% and 92%, whereas the increase in being at residential places ranges between 8% and 55%, all with respect to the baseline determined by Google.
This paper investigates the relationship between country-specific changes in mobility and the corresponding COVID-19 cases/deaths. This is achieved by using daily data on COVID-19 cases and deaths as well as Google mobility data covering 130 countries around the world for the period between February 15th, 2020 and May 2nd, 2020. Descriptive statistics suggest that both COVID-19 cases and deaths are lower in countries with less mobility.
The formal investigation is achieved by using a difference-in-difference design, where weekly changes in COVID-19 cases or deaths are regressed on weekly changes in mobility. After controlling for county-fixed effects, time-fixed effects, and country-specific timing of the 100th COVID-19 case, the results suggest that 1% of a weekly increase in being at residential places leads into about 70 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 7 less weekly COVID-19 deaths, whereas 1% of a weekly decrease in visits to transit stations leads into about 33 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 4 less weekly COVID-19 deaths, on average across countries.
Similarly, 1% of a weekly reduction in visits to retail & recreation results in about 25 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 3 less weekly COVID-19 deaths, or 1% of a weekly reduction in visits to workplaces results in about 18 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 2 less weekly COVID-19 deaths. Finally, 1% of a weekly reduction in visits to grocery & pharmacy or parks results in about 1 less weekly COVID-19 death, although the effects on COVID-19 cases are statistically insignificant.
The corresponding academic paper by Hakan Yilmazkuday has been accepted for publication at Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment.